Near the end, with the good news of the release of the policy, the PV industry has finally seen the light. For them, there is no reality in this industry so winter cold winter.
Although the government has been supportive attitude set the tone, but the association did not see, in essence, there is no apparent rebound, the photovoltaic industry really pick up how much longer? "For businesses, the current sentiment is relatively strong this year, most of the very serious business losses. industry have to wait until the second half of the fastest warming in 2013. "domestic photovoltaic insiders of a listed company declined to be named, told reporters in their analysis.
Short-term is difficult to stabilize the price of photovoltaic products
Starting from the third quarter, the good news from the PV industry, the policy continues. First of distributed PV grid-Bye identified, followed by the second batch of Golden Sun started the project, and then there, Premier Wen Jiabao chaired a December 19 regular meeting of the State Council, specializing in research to determine the policy to promote the healthy development of five photovoltaic industry measures and so on.
Internal and external problems facing the photovoltaic industry, the government to turn the tide, which greatly boosted the confidence of the industry's positive PV Goes comeback battle has only a short period before the Articles related measures not introduced, the policy of the PV industry generated positive effect does not seem obvious, manufacturers sentiment strong.
"The market overall downturn in advance, there is no clear policy faces before, whether it is silicon, wafers, cells or components of the enterprise, we see atmosphere is still thick, the market turnover is still in the doldrums." Guoxin Securities electrical equipment and new energy, said Zhang Tao like silicon, because demand has been difficult to see until warm, most domestic manufacturers have discontinued silicon material, not re-start the basic stage.
"Short term, I think, driven by the favorable policies, the PV product prices stabilized stabilized still difficult, however, as some enterprises to stop production, the decline should be narrowed." Insiders a domestic photovoltaic companies declined to be named this analysis.
Reporter PV Insights photovoltaic products from the spot price data learned on Dec. 27 week, photovoltaic polycrystalline silicon, 156mm and 125mm monocrystalline silicon, 156mm and 125mm monocrystalline cell prices unchanged from last week, did not change. 156mm polycrystalline silicon films continue to decline, but the decline narrowed significantly, down 0.12%, the average price of $ 0.807 / piece. 156mm polycrystalline silicon cells price of $ 1.435 / piece, down 0.28%. Crystalline silicon modules continuation of last week's decline, down 0.15%.
"European and American Christmas holiday week trading volume was light, the whole industry chain of price stability, which monocrystalline silicon solar cells and demand remains good. Recent enterprise is no longer the price, but to further reduce capacity utilization in the current price, Enterprise has no intention to cut the price of silicon dumped goods, polysilicon prices stabilize. "Zhang Tao this analysis.
? Walk to the production stage
Development of each industry are tough, the photovoltaic industry is no exception, had a brilliant time, also had a downturn, not only from external repression double reverse Ordinance, internal overcapacity is it not the current predicament facing the photovoltaic industry trend The root causes.
"The industry is still in its early stages of development, better earnings in previous years, many companies have entered the industry, a lack of industry standards, we would have wanted to make money, but the market is so big, so resulting in today's situation of overcapacity is inevitable. "insiders said these companies, plus double reverse, the United States basically blocked the export market, overcapacity contradictions will become more prominent.
Up to now, the middle and lower wafer, cell and module links, global production capacity of about 40-50GW, China's production capacity component vendors accounted for 30GW. PV industry overcapacity problem has received increasing attention. Recently, the Chinese Renewable Energy Industries Association, says Zhao Yuwen, given the current grim situation of China's photovoltaic industry, you need to give full play to survival of the fittest mechanism to purify and elevate the industry.
However, this process is laborious, but also need long-term perspective. "Dilemma facing the photovoltaic industry more than expected, the living environment of the photovoltaic business within a short time there will be no substantive changes, mergers and restructuring of upstream polysilicon business imperative." Investment Advisor in the new energy industry researcher Xiao letter said.
Early is too large, too fast growth makes domestic production capacity of polysilicon and PV modules far exceeds market demand, and the capacity of the international market contraction is even worse, structural imbalances, excess capacity, low profitability of the business and other issues exposed.
The current situation is that serious excess capacity so that many companies have ceased, but the capacity is not much effective exit. "I think, in 2013 with the exit of small businesses, the actual reduction in capacity will occur." Above company source said.
Turnaround in the second half of next year
After a series of favorable policies are rolled out, dawn, the industry began to focus on another issue, the real pick photovoltaic industry last?
"Although the country's attitude to support the PV industry has made it clear, but the exact details have yet to see, for the enterprise, most will wait, this year most of the very serious business losses. Industry to pick up the fastest have to wait until 2013 half of it! "above the photovoltaic business insiders said.
? "As the price difficult to turn, the industry is still in the winter period, the EU increased the dual concerns for the industry to pick up, if a trade war broke out development of the industry is expected to give a serious blow to the domestic industry as a whole distributed starting to drop in the bucket, But structural opportunities exist. "GuotaiJunan analyst Houwen Tao said the new energy industry, expected as early as the second half of 2013 will be a turnaround. He believes that time, the external environment, the risk of the European debt crisis may be over. Internally, the excess capacity will also restore the balance of supply and demand at that time.
"2012 gross profit margin of a serious decline in corporate debt rate is high, cash flow worrying first half of 2013 the market situation will be more severe, some Chinese PV companies will exit the market capacity will be curtailed." Said National Securities analyst Fu Caixia financing capacity of the key vendors of survival.